By Toma Imirhe
Although the intensity of the geopolitical confrontation in the Persian Gulf has eased following the recent ceasefire, African importers are still paying significantly more for many imported goods than they did before the conflict erupted in late February 2026. The reason is that while the shooting may have subsided, the economic disruptions that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have not disappeared. Shipping companies, insurers, commodity traders and manufacturers continue to price in elevated risks, and these costs are ultimately being passed on to importers and consumers across Africa.
Perhaps the clearest example is fertilizer. The Persian Gulf remains one of the world’s most important suppliers of urea, ammonia and sulphur, all essential inputs for global fertilizer production. During the conflict, exports from major producers were disrupted, dozens of fertilizer vessels were stranded, and shipping capacity was diverted to crude oil and liquefied natural gas, which governments considered higher priorities. Even after the ceasefire, fertilizer cargoes continue to face delays because shipping companies are restoring services gradually while insurers maintain high war-risk premiums.
Across Africa, this has translated into significantly higher import costs for fertilizer distributors. The effect is particularly important because agriculture depends heavily on imported fertilizers for the production of both food and cash crops. The resulting increase in production costs threatens to feed into higher food prices on the continent during the second half of 2026. Earlier in the crisis, agricultural economists warned that sustained increases in fertilizer prices could discourage farmers from applying recommended quantities, potentially reducing yields and increasing food inflation.
This has indeed come to pass. Since March 2026, disruptions in Middle East shipping routes have spiked global urea prices by up to 59% and inflated transport margins. Because Sub-Saharan Africa imports roughly 80% of its fertilizer, this dual shock has driven domestic agricultural costs higher, pushing regional food inflation upwards with localized spikes The World Bank has warned that overall fertilizer prices will average roughly 30.7% higher for the year
African farmers—especially in import-dependent nations like Nigeria and Ghana—are highly sensitive to these hikes. As a result, smallholders have reduced application rates, lowering crop yields and tightening domestic food supply.
Furthermore, importers of goods into Africa from other parts of the world were advised as early as March to prepare for higher freight charges and longer transit times because shipping lines had introduced emergency surcharges linked to the Middle East conflict. These included war-risk insurance charges, fuel surcharges and congestion fees, all of which continue to influence freight quotations today despite the easing of hostilities. Indeed, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has severely squeezed maritime and inland freight margins. Increased fuel and transport costs impact every stage of the agrifood value chain, converting the input shock into a classic cost-push dynamic.
Beyond fertilizer, petroleum products remain among the most affected imports. Even though crude oil prices have retreated from their conflict peaks, tanker operators continue to charge elevated freight rates because navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is still subject to security restrictions, convoy arrangements and expensive insurance coverage. These higher transport costs influence the landed cost of refined petroleum products imported into Africa from other parts of the world, affecting transport costs and indirectly raising prices across the broader economy.
Industrial chemicals, plastics, petrochemical feed stocks and construction materials are also experiencing above-normal import costs. Many of these products originate directly from Gulf producers or depend on Gulf-produced feed stocks. Shipping delays have lengthened delivery schedules while manufacturers themselves are paying more for energy and logistics, costs that are reflected in export prices. Similarly, imported food ingredients, edible oils and certain packaged consumer goods continue to carry higher freight costs because container shipping networks have yet to return to normal operating patterns.
International shipping experts argue that the persistence of these elevated costs is entirely consistent with previous geopolitical disruptions. According to executives at Allianz Commercial, a major global trade insurer, confidence in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be restored simply because a ceasefire has been announced. Their assessment is that shipping companies require clear security guarantees before returning to pre-conflict operating patterns, while insurers must first gain confidence that vessels can transit safely without renewed attacks.
Analysts quoted by leading international financial publications and online news portals make a similar point. They note that shipping markets do not reset overnight. Vessel backlogs, stranded cargoes, repositioning of empty containers, higher insurance premiums and contractual freight rates mean import costs usually remain elevated for weeks or months after military tensions ease.
The International Fertilizer Development Center has likewise observed that freight rates, bunker fuel prices and war-risk insurance premiums rose sharply following the outbreak of the conflict, creating a lasting increase in fertilizer transportation costs that extends beyond the period of active hostilities.
Looking ahead, the outlook for African importers is cautiously optimistic but far from certain. If the ceasefire holds and maritime security continues to improve, petroleum shipping costs could begin moving closer to pre-conflict levels over the next two to four months as tanker movements normalize and insurance premiums gradually decline. However, fertilizer, chemicals and containerized cargoes are likely to require a longer adjustment period—possibly until the final quarter of 2026 or even early 2027—because of shipping backlogs and continuing supply constraints.
Consequently, African businesses and consumers should not expect an immediate reduction in import prices simply because the military confrontation has subsided. Freight markets typically lag geopolitical developments, and until shipping companies, insurers and commodity exporters regain confidence that the Persian Gulf has become a genuinely low-risk trade corridor once again, import costs into Africa will remain above the levels that prevailed before the crisis erupted in February.
